Financial conditions tightened significantly in July, raising borrowing costs across the board. Central banks are now stuck between oil-inspired inflation and recklessly leveraged asset markets digesting the highest borrowing costs since 2007. Good overview in the discussion below.
DoubleLine CEO-CIO Jeffrey Gundlach joins CNBC’s Scott Wapner following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC press conference. Mr. Gundlach’s read is that the market didn’t buy what Chairman Warsh was selling. While the Fed held rates steady, Mr. Gundlach points to the U.S. Treasury yield curve’s sharp steepening during the press conference as the real story, undoing much of the flattening the market had rewarded Chairman Warsh with back in June. His view is straightforward: If Chairman Warsh is truly committed to getting inflation to 2%, and not a “whisper above,” then holding rates steady while war-driven commodity prices keep climbing is inconsistent with that goal. Mr. Gundlach argues the bond market is essentially calling that bluff and now expects the Fed to hike in September to claw back some of the credibility it just gave up…On markets, Mr. Gundlach flags growing stress beneath the surface of corporate credit, with spreads widening meaningfully on AI and hyperscaler names and a growing disconnect between what rating agencies are assigning and how those bonds trade in the market. He continues to favor staying up in credit quality, avoiding leverage and steering clear of the long end of the Treasury curve, which he believes is headed toward the mid-5% range as concerns mount over fiscal and Social Security funding pressures. Here is a direct video link.
